Nawaz Sharif is at Risk due to Sindh Crisis.

Sindh crisis is among three players.

1. PPP Sindh Government (Zardari).

2. Paramilitary Force (Military Force).

3. PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif).

The Military and Paramilitary Force is already having power under the Anti Terrorist Act and Pakistan Protection Ordinance to conduct operation in all over Pakistan. However, Sindh Rangers were assigned by the Sindh Government to conduct operations under article 147 against extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, terrorists and their abettors, facilitators, supporters.

After termination of the operational period on 5th December 2015, now the Sindh Government is willing to conduct operation by the Sindh Rangers under article 147 against extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, and terrorists by excluding or exempting their abettors, facilitators, and supporters by putting the condition of permission from Chief Minister of Sindh before their arrest.

Butt, Military and Paramilitary Force are of the view that it will sabotage the paramilitary force operation and deteriorate the situation of Karachi. In addition, people of Sindh, along with traders, industrialists, transporters and civil society of Karachi is also in demand to conduct the operations against abettors, facilitators, and supporters of extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, and terrorists, too.

Due to a conflict or crisis between player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government and player number 2, the Paramilitary Force, now player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government will take the final decision.

Now, if player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government will take the side of player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government then due to excluding or exempting the abettors, facilitators, supporters of extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, terrorists from the paramilitary force operation by declaring them the elected members, politicians, government servants and binding their arrest with condition of permission from Chief Minister of Sindh before their arrest, then, it will be objectionable for the player number 2, the Military Force because, it will sabotage the paramilitary force operation and deteriorate the situation of Karachi therefore, traders, industrialists, transporters, civil society of Karachi and people of Sindh will protest it by shutdown of Karachi city and Karachi port. Ultimately, it will become terrible and trouble for the player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government, instead of player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government.

If player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government will take the side of player number 2, the Paramilitary Force by directing the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government, under Article 148 (3) and article 149 (4) of the constitution of Pakistan, to allow the operation of Sindh Rangers against extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, terrorists, without prior permission of arrest for the abettors, facilitators, supporters and for the elected members, politicians, government servants from Chief Minister of Sindh before their arrest then, it will not be admissible for the player number 1, the Zardari because, elected members, politicians, government servants, those are abettors, facilitators, supporters of extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, terrorists and they are related to the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) will be arrested in the result of Sindh Rangers operation. Therefore, the player number 1, the Zardari will choose the option of enforcement of article 234 from the player number 3, the Nawaz Sharif, by manipulating or refusing or resisting the directions of the player number 3, the Nawaz Sharif, under article 148 (3) and article 149 (4) to redress and resolve the Karachi Crisis.

Because, after the enforcement of article 234, along with challenging the act of player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government by the Sindh Government in supreme court and resisting its approval in the national assembly and senate, PPP will also counter the act of enforcement of article 234 by declaring it as an act of discrimination and victimization with PPP to win the sympathy of the public by using the Sindhi card, Sindh card, provincial autonomy card, derailing democracy card etc, in people of Sindh. PPP leadership already has experience and skills in it. They are addicted to using it as a routine matter. Many times, they had used this strategy as a political tactic to pressurize Punjab and blackmail the Federal Government. At present too, they have started to prepare the groundwork for the expected political move.

Therefore, to govern the province, handle the people of Sindh and to compete with PPP and MQM in their home ground will become dangerous and difficult for the player number 3, the Nawaz Sharif, after the enforcement of article 234 in Sindh because, the PMLN is already existing in Sindh with a fragile party structure and without competent political leadership, workers, followers and public support. Furthermore, PMLN central leadership is competent in the politics of Punjab and has the experience and skill of politics on their own home ground Punjab but, atmosphere, environment and requirement of politics of urban Sindh and rural Sindh is totally different, more complex and very difficult for the politicians of Punjab and Punjab belonging leadership of PMLN.

CONCLUSION.

1. Conclusion for player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari).

The position of the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) is lost from all aspects, except the player number 2, the Military Force should provide the shelter to him along with the support of player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government.

Or the people of Sindh, along with traders, industrialists, transporters and civil society of Karachi should come in support of him or withdraw from agitating against him along with the presence of support from player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government.

Otherwise, elected members, politicians, government servants, those are abettors, facilitators, supporters of extortionists, kidnappers, target killers, terrorists and they are related to the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) will be arrested in the result of Sindh Rangers operation.

2. Conclusion for player number 2, the Paramilitary Force (Military Force).

The position of the player number 2, the Paramilitary Force is very strong due to the support of traders, industrialists, transporters, civil society of Karachi and people of Sindh. Even the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) and the player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif), both with combined move cannot harm him. But, the withdrawal of support from the traders, industrialists, transporters, civil society of Karachi and people of Sindh will be fatal for the player number 2, the Paramilitary Force.

3. Conclusion for player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif).

The position of the player number 3, the Nawaz Sharif is at risk due to dealing with Sindh crisis. Therefore, if the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) is not able to succeed the support of player number 2, the Military Force or the support of the people of Sindh, along with traders, industrialists, transporters and civil society of Karachi, then delay or mishandling to resolve the Sindh crisis will become dangerous and fatal for player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif).

However, success in handling the Sindh crisis by retaining the support of player number 2, the Military Force, achieving the support of traders, industrialists, transporters, civil society of Karachi and people of Sindh, along with, competing the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) without delaying, with appropriate political plan and competent political players will benefit the player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif) by strengthening the government and enhancing the political support in public.

But, failing to handle the Sindh crisis by losing the support of player number 2, the Military Force, deficient in the support of traders, industrialists, transporters, civil society of Karachi and people of Sindh, along with, defeating from the player number 1, the PPP Sindh Government (Zardari) due to unnecessary delay, inappropriate political plan and impotent political players will damage the player number 3, the PMLN Federal Government (Nawaz Sharif) by failing the government and declining the political support in public.